Morgan Stanley: Macau GGR to Surpass $22B in 2027

Macau’s gross gaming revenues have taken quite a hit. The COVID-19 pandemic and the sporadic resurgence of the virus have devastated the tourism sector in the special administrative region, by extension greatly impacting gambling.

Analysts were somewhat hopeful about the industry’s recovery in the second half of 2022 but sadly, it continued to underperform despite the eased-up pandemic-related restrictions. Morgan Stanley analysts, on the other hand, believe the recovery would be a slow process.

Macau to Top GGR of $22B in 2027

According to recent research by the analytics firm, Macau gaming would top GGR by $22 billion by 2027. This sum would still be lower than the pre-pandemic levels but will signpost the region’s recovery, eventually changing the concession terms.

Macau’s six concessionaires just received their concessions which allow them to operate gambling in the special administrative region for the next decade. Under the terms of the newly-minted concessions, the operators will have to boost their non-gaming spend once Macau GGR reaches the aforementioned mark.

If this happens, Morgan Stanley’s specialists say, some of the biggest operators, such as MGM China and SJM Resorts, will have a lot of weight on their shoulders. The FCFE and EBITDA difficulties will likely be more pronounced for these two companies since the concessionaires’ contributions are not equal.

The Concessionaires Already Have Plans for their Investments

The non-gaming investments are in line with Macau’s vision which sees the concessionaires as companies that should nurture tourism. Therefore, all concessionaires are required to invest in non-gaming and update Macau on their annual plans.

Companies that fail to spend the required investment would be required to invest in more business activities or support public projects chosen by Macau’s government.

The concessionaires have already submitted their plans for the upcoming years. Wynn Macau plans to open a new theater, an art gallery and a theme center. Sands China’s idea, on the other hand, is to invest in dining facilities and a new garden. Meanwhile, MGM China will open a district focused on arts and entertainment.

As for the non-western companies, Galaxy Entertainment will focus on launching a huge 61,000-square-meter hi-tech amusement park and a large museum. The concession holder also hopes to open its 16,000-seat Galaxy Arena. SJM will also invest in museums, planning to open three of them. Lastly, Melco would open a new cinema and a water park. It would also once again host its Dancing Water Show.

These are only parts of the concessionaires’ full plans for the future.

Operators would likely start investing from 2024, Morgan Stanley says. According to its experts, Macau may consider 2023 as a year for recovery, allowing concessionaires to fully focus their efforts on boosting their businesses.